California Water Crisis on the Horizon?
At the recent Democratic Party Convention there were many references to "global warming" by such notable speakers as Attorney General Jerry Brown and LG John Garamendi. As "global warming" becomes popular political buzz words that strikes a cord with the public, strong political "resistance" to government intervention remains.
Apparently bowing to pressure from the auto industry, the California Air Resources Board recently voted to slash by 70% the number of zero-emissions vehicles that car-makers will be required to sell in the state in the coming years.
Another related subject that hasn't received much attention is a troubling report from the Planning and Conservation League, regarding declining water supplies and inflated water projections. Just like the bursting of the housing bubble when the sub prime mortgage reality set in, the 2007 State Water Project Delivery Reliability Report signals a similar burst of California's water bubble. The 2007 Draft Report reveals that the State Water Project (SWP) will deliver 20 to 30 percent less water to agricultural, commercial, and residential users than it had estimated in 2005.
The draft report is the first to reflect more realistic water export levels, although it still masks the underlying problem that expectations for SWP water are still much higher than nature can accommodate.
The bi-annual reliability report is the product of a settlement agreement between PCL and the Department of Water Resources over our legal challenge to proposed amendments to the State Water Project contracts. This report is the basis of many major water plans across the state, as well as the foundation for water supply assessments required for new development.
In much the same way that irresponsible loan practices fueled unrealistic expectations in the housing market, previous reports, including the 2005 report, inflated predictions of Delta exports by ignoring the mounting problems in the Delta and the impacts of climate change on California's hydrology.
As a result, water managers, cities, and counties have falsely assumed the SWP can deliver more water than it actually can. Despite the importance of the report, there are no mechanisms in place to ensure the accuracy of the reports' projections. As PCL noted in recent comments, the 2007 report still fails to account for many of the impacts of climate change and continues to overestimate feasible water exports from the Delta.
Traci Sheehan, Executive Director, Planning and Conservation League (California Progress Report, 4/3/2008). For more information regarding the Water Project Delivery Report visit the Department of Water Resources.
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